India is expected to outperform all major emerging markets in terms of non-life insurance premium growth in 2025-2026, according to Swiss Re Institute (SRI) in a new sigma report.
The report, titled “Growth in the shadow of (geo)politics: Global economic and insurance market outlook 2025-26”, says, “We forecast India’s non-life premium growth at 8.0% and 9.3% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, driven by strong economic growth, with rising demand for auto insurance, health coverages and government support for crop insurance. regulatory efforts to increase insurance take-up will also support non-life insurance demand in the long term.”
Emerging Asia is set to be the main driving force of growth in non-life insurance premiums in emerging markets. Non-life premiums in Emerging Asia are expected to grow at a 7.4% CAGR in 2025-26.
In emerging markets, growing exposure rather than pricing is supporting non-life premium growth. SRI expects a CAGR of 4.1% during 2025?26, slightly below the 4.3% of 2024 and higher than the 3.7% average of 2019-23.
Globally, however, non-life premium growth will slow as pricing conditions become less favourable, led by advanced markets. SRI forecasts global non-life premiums to decelerate to a 2.3% CAGR over the 2025-26 period – below the 4.3% growth rate of 2024 and the 3.1% CAGR of the last five years.
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Non-life insurance premiums
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Forecast growth rates for 2025-2026 %
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India
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8.9 (2025); 9.3 (2026)
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Emerging Asia
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7.4
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Emerging markets
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4.1
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Global market
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2.3
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Source: Swiss Re Institute sigma report No 5/2024
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Global total insurance premiums
The forecast is that global total insurance premiums will increase by 2.6% on average in real terms in 2025 and 2026, after 4.6% estimated growth in 2024. Growth will be primarily driven by the life sector, although saving business growth will moderate as interest rates decline.
Life insurance
SRI expects global life premiums to grow by a CAGR of 3.0% in real terms in 2025-26, more than double the past long-term trend (CAGR of 1.3% during 2014-23). It estimates that the global life market grew by 5.0% this year, the highest rate in a decade, primarily driven by strong demand for savings products. The consumer rush into saving business should fade gradually and the growth rates of the saving and protection segments eventually converge.
Interest rates, despite some easing, are set to stay elevated for the medium term, underpinning demand for life savings products, with a demand pivot from fixed-rate to index-linked savings products. Real wage growth, ageing demographics and the rise of the middle class in emerging markets continue to support the positive backdrop.