Climate change exacerbates risk of extreme wildfires 25%
Source: Asia Insurance Review | Oct 2023
Climate change aggravates the risk of fast-spreading wildfires by an average of 25% as compared to pre-industrial era according to a new study.
The study released in September 2023 and published in a recent issue of scientific journal Nature also provides lessons for prevention after recent disasters in Canada, Greece and Hawaii.
The study conducted by a team of scientists from the California based environmental research institute Breakthrough Institute has revealed that human-caused warming has increased the frequency of ‘extreme’ wildfires by 25% on average compared to the pre-industrial era.
The study examines a series of blazes from 2003 to 2020 and uses machine learning to analyse the link between higher average temperatures, dryer conditions and the fastest-spreading blazes ones that burn more than 10,000acres (4,000hectares) a day.
The study found that in certain partly dry conditions, global warming pushed the area beyond the vital thresholds, making extreme fires much more likely. In very dry conditions, the impact was less.
The researchers calculated that the risk could increase on average by 59% by the end of the century under a low-emissions scenario where global warming is limited to 1.8 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and up to 172% in an unbridled high-emissions scenario. A