Food security risks across South and Southeast Asia are set to rise, raising the potential for unrest and political instability in some of Asia's most exposed economies, including India, Indonesia and the Philippines, according to a new report by risk consultancy firm Verisk Maplecroft.
The new report released on 16 September 2026 reveals that conflict-driven fertiliser and fuel costs, and a record El Niño, are hitting Asian harvests simultaneously, compounding food insecurity across the region.
Over half of South and Southeast Asia's most food-insecure countries also rank high for civil unrest risk, making price shocks a likely trigger for instability. South Asia faces the sharpest combined risk, with fragile new governments and top rice exporters both exposed heading into a more disruptive 2027.
The dual threat comes on the back of fertiliser shortages and rising fuel prices stemming from the Gulf conflict, alongside a likely record-breaking El Niño, which is already disrupting harvests ahead of a more disruptive 2027.
While the impact of the Gulf conflict on oil and energy markets has dominated attention, food prices and availability could be more consequential, potentially stoking wider political and societal upheaval. More than 75% of countries in South and Southeast Asia are already categorised as high- or very high-risk on Verisk Maplecroft’s Food Security Index, leaving the region extremely vulnerable to renewed pressure from food price inflation, an established trigger for unrest.
Worryingly, over half of these countries, including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines also sit within the two highest risk categories of the global risk data company’s predictive Civil Unrest Index. Rising prices are identified as a key driver of unrest risk in many of these economies by the index.
The impacts are increasingly visible. In many key agriculture regions, planting and fertilisation decisions were made during the peak of the disruption, meaning negative impacts may now be locked in even if the geopolitical situation improves in the coming months.
The current – and likely record-breaking – El Niño weather pattern adds a second layer of risk. Key agriculture zones in South and Southeast Asia are experiencing hotter and drier conditions including through a weakening of the South Asian monsoon. In addition to more severe heatwaves, less regular but more severe rainfall also raises the risk of crop damage from unexpected flooding following drought.
The risk is particularly acute for the world’s top rice exporters, including India, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan. The report findings reveal that among these markets, only Vietnam sits outside the highest risk category risk for Water Stress, reflecting chronic strain on water resources even before disrupted El Niño rainfall patterns are factored in. Heatwaves and water stress also threaten palm oil harvests in Indonesia and Malaysia, with potential knock-on impacts across fuel and food supply chains.