The extreme heatwaves seen over the last few years may only serve as a preview of what is to come as a result of climate change, according to a new study led by a research team of Freie Universität Berlin and published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.
According to a press release by the University, the new study “Recent Extreme Heatwaves Are No Match for Future Events,” reveals that future heatwaves could last longer, impact larger areas, and be much more severe. The research team analysed twenty-two exceptional heatwaves that occurred between 2010 and 2023 in regions such as Europe, Australia, China, India and Pakistan, North Africa and the Middle East, and South America.
Nine heatwaves from between 2015 and 2023 were investigated in depth. The researchers then compared these events with climate model projections for the period from 2020 to 2100. Unlike analyses that observe individual temperature records, this new study investigates several heatwave characteristics at the same time, such as duration, cumulative heat, median and maximum event severity, and median and maximum spatial extent of locally heat-affected areas.
Freie Universität Berlin Department of Physics and Department of Mathematics and Computer Science faculty and first author of the study Philipp Aglas-Leitner said, “The results demonstrate a clear pattern across different climate model ensembles and emission scenarios: A substantial proportion of future heatwaves surpass exceptional events in the recent lived experience. They could last longer, impact larger areas, be more severe, and produce much higher accumulated temperature anomalies. Recent observed events are outmatched by a substantial margin, particularly toward the end of the twenty-first century.”
The study’s projections of severe heatwaves are especially striking. The authors state that they will become much more frequent in many regions in the period from 2015 and 2054. The majority of the model ensembles for a lot of the regions investigated are projected to have at least one exceptional heatwave period per year between 2060 and 2099.
Mr Aglas-Leitner said, “Our results clearly demonstrate that many of the extreme heatwaves that people today have experienced in recent years could be outmatched by those of the future. This has far-reaching implications for human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems.
“Even ambitious emission reduction goals offer only limited protection. Without substantial emission reductions and consistent adaptation measures, however, a significant part of the twenty-first century will be defined by heat that goes far beyond our recent experiences.”
The study is a joint project between different international coauthors, including researchers from Freie Universität Berlin and the Australian National University, who collaborated with scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ETH Zurich, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Earth Sciences New Zealand, and University of Hamburg.