Vietnam's population will continue to grow in the coming decades but the pace of growth is expected to slow down, reaching its peak around 2059 under a medium-fertility scenario. Thereafter, it is likely to shift into a period of slower growth or stabilisation, according to a new report by Vietnam's National Statistics Office (NSO).
A press release issued by the NSO in December 2025 stated that over the next 50 years, from 2024 to 2074, Vietnam’s population is projected to increase by 2.5%, 12.7%, and 17.0% under the low-fertility (1.45 children per woman), medium-fertility (1.85 children per woman), and high-fertility (2.01 children per woman) scenarios respectively, reaching 103.9m, 114.2m, and 118.5m people.
The report "Vietnam Population Projections, 2024-2074" provides a comprehensive overview of projected trends in population size, age and sex structure, and population distribution over the next half century. It reflects the demographic transition currently underway in Vietnam, which in many ways mirrors global patterns.
The findings of the report were also presented at a recent workshop hosted by the NSO in coordination with the UN Population Fund, drawing on recent census data and large-scale surveys covering socio-economic conditions across 53 ethnic groups in the country.
The report also reveals that the demographic window of opportunity (defined as the period during which every two people of working age 15-64 support one dependent person—either under age 15 or aged 65 and above) is projected to end around 2036.
This marks the transition into an aged and then super-aged society, reflected in the shrinking proportions of children and working-age adults alongside the rapid growth of the older population.
The report reveals that urbanisation in the country will continue, though at a slower pace, as the proportion of the urban population approaches 50%. Internal migration remains one of the key factors reshaping population distribution across regions, reflecting disparities in socio-economic development and the varying capacity of localities to attract and utilise labour.
The report has also put forward several policy implications to help the country proactively adapt to its emerging population context. These recommendations focus on fully leveraging the demographic window of opportunity, responding effectively to population ageing and addressing the long-term consequences of the persistent sex imbalance at birth.