M&A activity in India expected to increase in 2024
By Ahmad Zaki
The global macroeconomic landscape is facing significant challenges, from the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict, disruptions in food pricing and supply chain, shortages of natural resources and high profile failures of banks.
During his presentation yesterday, Huntington Partners partner Jonathan Tow pointed out that these challenges have negatively affected global M&A activity. 2022 saw activity decline to the 10-year average levels, while 2023 saw an even further downturn. Global deal value in 2022 was at $3.79tn, while 2023 only saw $2.77tn.
The same applies to India. While India did see a big uptick in activity and deal value in 2022, last year did not fare so well, with only 19 deals occurring in the first three quarters of the year (in comparison to 2022’s record-breaking 111 deals). He attributed this to the rising interest rates, which have cooled off interest in M&A significantly.
Much of this is aided by the real GDP growth of the nation, he said. After a disastrous 2021, where GDP grew negatively, 2022 and 2023 saw India rebound, with experts projecting a 6.2% growth in GDP for 2024.
More M&A activity expected
Mr Tow also said that with the growing GDP, M&A activity will likely see an uptick this year. Deals will most likely follow global trends from over the past decade, with most deals focusing on consolidation, supply chain diversification, renewable energy investments and acquisitions of start-ups.
The revisions proposed by IRDAI will also likely promote more activity, as the regulatory changes are expected to improve business ease, insurance penetration and distribution, alongside the InsurTech sandbox to enhance opportunities. Further, new capital requirements are expected to trigger a new wave of M&A deals this year, as smaller firms consolidate and larger firms divesting their non-core assets.
He also said that additional factors that would drive M&A include the revised FDI limits – which will increase from 49% to 74% - and the RBI’s new banking guidelines. With this new guidance, which will cap insurance holdings by banks to 30%, the market will see continued divestiture of holdings.
The world is keen on India
The rates at which foreign investors are flocking to India has also increased over the years, with many global and regional investors seeing the opportunity within the market. Since 2020, about half of M&A activity was from foreign investors; besides India, the top countries that have been making deals are US, Singapore, UK and Japan.
He added that the majority of M&A deal value is driven by life and health insurance deals, while the P&C sector is maintaining a steady deal volume.
Mr Tow also said that historically, downturns in the market have been great opportunities for organisations to make bold moves in the M&A space. During the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, companies in India that took portfolio actions outgrew their peers two to one in nominal earnings before interest and taxes over the subsequent five years.
Further, across all economic cycles, companies that engage in frequent and material M&A achieve almost twice the total shareholder growth of nonacquirers, he said.