Risk of isolation increases with sea-level rise
Source: Asia Insurance Review | Aug 2023
A new research report published in the journal Nature Climate Change by a team of researchers University of Maryland US and University of Canterbury, New Zealand has said people will be cut off from roads and other critical infrastructure long before they are underwater. It is a threat that society has not paid enough attention to.
The study said the typical displacement metric for sea-level rise adaptation planning is property inundation. However, this metric may underestimate risk as it does not fully capture the wider cascading or indirect effects of sea-level rise.
The report says to address this issue, it is proposed to complement it by considering the risk of population isolation: those who may be cut off from essential services. Investigate the importance of this metric by comparing the number of people at risk from inundation to the number of people at risk from isolation.
Considering inundated roadways during mean higher high water tides in the coastal US shows that although highly spatially variable, the increase across the US varies between 30% and 90% and is several times higher in some states.
The study revealed that the risk of isolation may occur decades sooner than the risk of inundation. Both risk metrics provide critical information for evaluating adaptation options and giving priority to support for at-risk communities.
An author of the study Ms A Reilly said, “While sea level rise is often considered a problem for the far future, people will start getting isolated much sooner. “It is very possible that we could see that in our lifetimes.” A