Coface has downgraded Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which it estimates could reduce global economic growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 2027. In its country and sector risk assessment released on 13 October, the trade credit insurer also reported three country downgrades and four upgrades, alongside 20 changes to sector assessments, including 12 downgrades and eight upgrades. Coface forecast global economic growth of 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2025, before a slight recovery to 2.6% in 2027.