Growth is at the top of the agenda
Capital still remains an issue for insurers all across Asia, with many challenges to overcome. We speak to Guy Carpenter’s Mr Justin Ward on what these challenges are, and how Guy Carpenter is helping its clients find the correct solutions.
By Ahmad Zaki
Mr Justin Ward
Growth is the main item on the agenda for Guy Carpenter’s clients, either organic or inorganic, said Guy Carpenter managing director and head of capital advisory, Asia Pacific Justin Ward.
“Capital management and reinsurance are key enablers of growth – supporting ‘capital recycling’ from poor-performing segments/lines of business through reinsurance to access reinsurer capacity and capabilities to launch new product lines,” he said.
Alternative business model configurations are also being discussed, which explores the areas where clients can play. This has a significant impact on how in-force portfolios are managed – including the reinsurance implications and how risk capital for new business is generated.
He also noted that volatility remains an issue for most clients during the transition to higher retentions. “This situation is complicated by the evolving risk environment, including perils such as flood and fire, geopolitical tensions and the coverage hangover from COVID-19. Notably, the spectre of inflation in the region has fallen,” he said.
Compounding these items is the search for growth, with carriers entering lines of business or segments where internal expertise is limited. Without adequate reinsurance capacity and capability, entry to these lines of business can increase volatility.
Furthermore, balance sheet are currently seeing some strain due to various factors. For instance, many jurisdictions have transitioned or are transitioning to a risk-based capital environment and/or IFRS17. “This has occurred in Hong Kong, while in Indonesia, capital is emerging as a ‘hot issue’, given proposals to increase minimum capital requirements and the potential to make some liability product compulsory,” he said.
Reinsurers see good returns
Guy Carpenter is estimating an RoE of 21.9% for reinsurers and future estimated returns on equity (RoE) are now forecasted to continue to exceed cost of equity in each of the next three years.
“While recent returns have been stellar, we have observed very few new entrants to the market,” Mr Ward said. “However, organic capital growth via incumbent reinsurers remains strong and is able to absorb rising demand, while intensifying competition. Unlike previous cycles, investors have a variety of vehicles to enter the sector, with varying degrees of liquidity.”
Many reinsurers are also increasing their focus on structured solutions (tactical and strategic) while developing capacity and capability offerings for niche lines of business.
Looking ahead, Guy Carpenter expects catastrophe bond activity to remain strong, with a record first half in 2024, and the second quarter being the most active recorded. “We expect the second half of 2024 to be active, given a heavy maturity schedule of catastrophe bonds. However, available capital will be heavily influenced by North American wind activity,” he said.
Changing reinsurance narrative
Driven by various external factors and shareholder pressure, the view on reinsurers is changing. Traditionally, many insurers saw reinsurance as an underwriting and capacity support tool. However, the broker is now having more conversations about reinsurance as a core source of capital – complementing debt and equity – in improving preparedness for regulatory change, taking advantage of growth opportunities and managing volatility from the evolving risk environment.
“Similarly, we are seeing capital – that would like exposure to the insurance – being increasingly segmented. Investors’ appetite has widened significantly for distributionorientated assets, life exposure, emerging lines of business and data/ analytics suppliers,” he said.
Over time, insurance risk and capital markets will become increasingly linked. Integrated debt and reinsurance opportunities will become increasingly popular, while some features of life reinsurance (with an investment component) are likely to permeate P&C reinsurance.